COVID-19 has claimed one more life in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 19, according to the Oregon Health Authority (OHA), which also reported 47 new cases of COVID-19 as of April 1.
Updated projections from health researchers show that there is “strong evidence that measures currently in place in Oregon are reducing transmission,” according to the latest models.
Health officials said the most recent data suggest that current social distancing measures could cut transmission rates between 50%-70% if Oregonians maintain these limitations on virus-spreading interactions into early May.
If Oregonians can maintain current social distancing efforts and the current projections hold true, the state could meet the likely demand for hospital beds under current strategies, according to the OHA.
According to the latest report, researchers estimate that Oregon has slightly higher numbers of current infections than previously assessed, based on an increase in reported cases from earlier time points.
Under current social distancing conditions with the cooperation of most Oregonians to Stay Home, Save Lives, it is estimated that in early May Oregon would have over 4,000 cumulative infections and 200-1,200 active infections. However, if the state were to reopen non-essential businesses (while keeping schools closed), the number of new infections would spike to as many as 3,500 active infections by early May
Hospital beds needed
Researchers found “expected demand for hospital beds is predicted to remain relatively constant before decreasing, assuming current or strengthened interventions and continued high compliance
Researchers highlighted that the projections remain uncertain. In coming weeks, state public health officials and researchers will get a better picture of current actual infections and how they affect the projections, as well as more data on the public’s continued adherence to social distancing measures.
The models state health officials released today were prepared by the Institute for Disease Modeling, based in Washington.
Oregon’s emergency response continues to focus on strengthening the health care system’s ability to meet the coming surge. State health officials said they are working with hospitals and other health care partners to mobilize the health care workforce and keep workers safe, expand bed capacity and secure more ventilators.
However, the public’s ability to maintain social distancing will be the most important factor in determining whether Oregon prevents local hospitals from becoming overwhelmed by COVID-19 admissions, according to OHA state health officer Dr. Dean Sidelinger.
“We know coronavirus has brought painful disruption and distress for Oregonians." Sidelinger said."However, these numbers tell us that what we’re doing can work. We know social distancing is tough and comes with incredible sacrifices. But steps we’re all taking to maintain social distancing could save the lives of people we know and people who are important to us. As Oregonians, we all must continue to put Stay Home, Save Lives into practice.”
Gov. Brown has requested approval from the White House to mobilize up to 1,250 Oregon National Guard members to assist with the state’s response to pandemic.
Brown also issued an executive order placing a 90-day moratorium on commercial evictions for nonpayment caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Her order also strengthens a previous ban on residential evictions, prohibiting landlords from charging tenants late fees for nonpayment of rent.
The new COVID-19 cases reported April 1 are in the following counties:
- Benton (1)
- Clackamas (6)
- Deschutes (3)
- Douglas (1)
- Jackson (1)
- Lane (2)
- Lincoln (1)
- Marion (10)
- Multnomah (18)
- Washington (3)
- Yamhill (1)
One case previously reported in Hood River County was identified as a resident of another state; thus, today’s statewide case count is 736. Oregon Health Authority reports new cases once a day on its website: www.healthoregon.org/coronavirus.
Oregon’s nineteenth COVID-19 death is a 70-year-old woman in Multnomah County, who tested positive on March 27, 2020, and died on March 29, 2020 at her residence. She had underlying medical conditions.
Update: The COVID-19 case data OHA publishes once a day on its website and shares once a day with the media are provisional and subject to change. A case reported yesterday as a Hood River County case was later determined to be a Washington State case. The total number of new cases reported as of yesterday has changed from 690 to 689.